Inaugural Weather Droppings Pooh Warning...

I really couldn't let this past weather forecasting blunder pass without issuing the inaugural Weather Droppings Pile of Pooh Warning for this past Sunday night/Monday.

As you recall the forecast called for 2-4" of snow Sunday night into Monday from a clipper system moving south across the central plains. All the models painted snow as it seemed sufficient cold air was to be in place. Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories were posted during the morning hours Sunday. As the day wore on Sunday, high temperatures reached the lower 50's and subsequently rain fell as the system swept through Alabama. The cold air that was forecasted lagged behind the frontal system and we only saw a brief changeover to snow (literally a few snowflakes).

So what happened and why should we be upset at the weather forecasters?
First, I think the reality is these people forget to look out the window. We seem to solely rely on what computer models tell us will happen instead of looking out to see what is actually happening.
Second, I notice an unwillingness to quickly modify the weather forecast when a miss is imminent. Early Sunday night, it was obvious by looking at radar and surface temperatures in Mississippi that the event was unfolding as a mostly rain event. Why would the meteorologist on shift at the National Weather Service not adjust the forecast and cancel the warnings. The warnings did get cancelled, but not until the event was practically over around 3am Monday morning. By changing the forecast, would it make the forecaster feel like he/she was wrong and they are better suited to ride it out?
Third, we need accountability in the weather offices. Its ok to miss forecasts. We must first realize what we don't know. Missing the forecast and sticking to your blown forecast is ignorance. The people in these positions should be held accountable for adjusting the weather forecast promptly based on what is happening outside the window.

Lastly, we need to do a shout out to the local school administrators. Since when did it become normal practice to adjust school schedules based on weather forecast? When I was in school, we let out when the event started unfolding and it appeared necessary. Now we are cancelling classes based on what may happen. What is the risk of waiting on making a school closure decision? Getting snowed in? I am unaware of any documented cases of students and teachers becoming stranded at school and freezing or starving to death. The worse thing that can happen is they have to stay at school a little later.

New Contrarian Direction for Weather Droppings

I've decided to move this site a different direction. Instead of discussing what the weather is going to do, we shall:

• We shall talk about what the weather is not going to do - Its ok to be unsure.
• We shall be upfront about the things we just don't know or understand about the weather.
• We shall point out when the "weather person" is wrong.
• We shall understand that mother nature is larger than us and not easily predicted.

Over and over again, the general public seems outraged by blown weather forecasts. Buy why? I think it stems from the inability of the "forecaster" to admit what they know vs don't know about the weather. Most forecasters speak in absolutes about what will happen, I guess fearing that any uncertainty would undermine there knowledge or ability to do their jobs.

So the new goal here is to point out "busted" forecast, and weather people that seem to have their head up their @$!%.

Based on this, we will be issuing Watches and Warnings similar to our friends at the National Weather Service based on "forecast" that just don't hit the mark.

Weather Droppings Pile of Pooh Watch: This forecast just doesn't seem right. We weary of what the "forecasters" are saying. Take a shot that things are not as they seem to be.

Weather Droppings Pile of Pooh Warning: A busted forecast is imminent or occurring. Take immediate action to protect you or your planned activities from being derailed.

More Snow Sunday Night

...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND ROUND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAYEVENING THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE EVENT WILLBEGIN AS RAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NEARLY ONE INCH GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...BUT ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 278 AND INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDORS. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AS THE EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.

Winter Storm Warning

...Winter Storm Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 6 PM
CST Friday...

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow...which is in effect from midnight
tonight to 6 PM CST Friday.

The atmosphere across central Alabama will be conducive to a dominant
precipitation type of snow. Snow will begin falling after midnight
tonight across far western areas near Tuscaloosa. The snow will
quickly spread eastward Friday morning...and is expected to taper
off from west to east late Friday afternoon. At this time...it
appears that snow accumulation of two to four inches will be
possible in and near the warned area.

Areas west of Interstate 65 will likely experience the heaviest
accumulating snow between 7 and 11 am while areas east of
Interstate 65 will get the heaviest snow a bit later between 10 am
and 2 PM.

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. If you must
travel...keep an extra flashlight... food...and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for the later
updates on this situation.

Winter Weather Potential Friday

From the National Weather Service:

Over the last couple of days much has been discussed in regards to the potential for winter weather Friday. Unfortunately...due to the lack of continuity in the forecast models...forecast confidence remains low. Timing remains very consistent in all of the forecast models...as Friday looks to be our target day. But with the uncertainty on the track of the surface low...which will determine not only the amount of moisture that is offered up with this system...but also how far the freezing line will dig into the south...it is still too early to pinpoint where and how much snow will fall in central Alabama. For now...the best chance for any accumulation of winter precipitation remains generally along and south of Interstate 20... especially during the morning hours on Friday. In the worst case scenario...a band of heavy snow could set up across the state...dropping 1 to 3 inches in a fairly short period of time. Please begin to plan ahead on how a couple of inches of snow could affect you and your family...before it actually falls.
Check back with US frequently for this potential of winter weather on Friday. On the web...check out our hazardous weather outlook and our multimedia impact briefing for the latest information.

Cold Continues - Record Watch

While we probably won't break any individual records for low temperatures with the current cold snap, a couple of significant streaks as it relates to the length of the cold are within reach.

Unseasonably cold weather will remain the story through next Monday (1/11). Yes, I said 1/11. If you think it is cold now, more is on the way and its going to get colder.

It did not make it above freezing today (high was 28), and tomorrow will be near freezing again. Tonight's low will be around 16.
Wednesday we should see increasing clouds with highs in the mid-30's.
Thursday will be cold with a chance of snow. It does not appear to be a big event at this time as the depth of this cold air mass is very dry. But we will be waiting and watching as you should as well.
Friday through Sunday looks brutally cold. Highs struggling to reach 20 Friday and Saturday with lows in the single digits very possible.
A warm up begins Monday with highs in the 40's (heat wave).

Notes from the NWS concerning the cold for the Anniston area:

AT ANNISTON…THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED (BETWEEN THE YEARS OF 1903 AND 2009) WAS -5 DEGREES ON JANUARY 21…1985. THE COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDED WAS 14 ON FEBRUARY 14…1905. THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL STREAKS THAT ARE WORTH NOTING. THE FIRST IS IN REGARDS TO MORNING LOWS. SO FAR ANNISTON HAS NOW RECORDED 3 DAYS…IN WHICH THE LOWS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 25 DEGREES. THE RECORD CONSECUTIVE STREAK FOR THIS IS 10 DAYS…WITH THE ENDING DATE OF JANUARY 7…1940. CURRENTLY…FORECAST FOR THE ANNISTON AIRPORT CALLS FOR LOWS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 DEGREES THROUGH JANUARY 11…WHICH WOULD BRING THE CURRENT STREAK TO 10 DAYS…AND TIE THE RECORD. A SECOND NOTEWORTHY STREAK WOULD BE CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN WHICH THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES. THE RECORD IS 4 DAYS…SET BACK IN JANUARY 1977.
SOME RECORD LOWS THROUGH JANUARY 11…ARE AS FOLLOWS…

5 - 1/11 1969
6 - 1/14 1959
7 - 1/11 1970
8 - 1/10 1970
9 - 1/02 1970
10 - 1/04 1982
11 - 1/01 1982

Update on Cold Air Heading South

One thing we can all agree on. It is going to get cold! The idea of light snow for Alabama Thursday night into Friday is diminishing. Flurries are still possible as the cold front pushes through early Friday morning.

New Years Eve: Cloudy, with some drizzle possible. Turning much colder after dark.

New Years Day: Cold, with highs only in the low 40's.

Next week promises to keep us in the deep freeze. Check out model output for the next 9 days for temperatures in our area:

Check out next week with highs only in the 30's with lows around 20.