Inaugural Weather Droppings Pooh Warning...

I really couldn't let this past weather forecasting blunder pass without issuing the inaugural Weather Droppings Pile of Pooh Warning for this past Sunday night/Monday.

As you recall the forecast called for 2-4" of snow Sunday night into Monday from a clipper system moving south across the central plains. All the models painted snow as it seemed sufficient cold air was to be in place. Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories were posted during the morning hours Sunday. As the day wore on Sunday, high temperatures reached the lower 50's and subsequently rain fell as the system swept through Alabama. The cold air that was forecasted lagged behind the frontal system and we only saw a brief changeover to snow (literally a few snowflakes).

So what happened and why should we be upset at the weather forecasters?
First, I think the reality is these people forget to look out the window. We seem to solely rely on what computer models tell us will happen instead of looking out to see what is actually happening.
Second, I notice an unwillingness to quickly modify the weather forecast when a miss is imminent. Early Sunday night, it was obvious by looking at radar and surface temperatures in Mississippi that the event was unfolding as a mostly rain event. Why would the meteorologist on shift at the National Weather Service not adjust the forecast and cancel the warnings. The warnings did get cancelled, but not until the event was practically over around 3am Monday morning. By changing the forecast, would it make the forecaster feel like he/she was wrong and they are better suited to ride it out?
Third, we need accountability in the weather offices. Its ok to miss forecasts. We must first realize what we don't know. Missing the forecast and sticking to your blown forecast is ignorance. The people in these positions should be held accountable for adjusting the weather forecast promptly based on what is happening outside the window.

Lastly, we need to do a shout out to the local school administrators. Since when did it become normal practice to adjust school schedules based on weather forecast? When I was in school, we let out when the event started unfolding and it appeared necessary. Now we are cancelling classes based on what may happen. What is the risk of waiting on making a school closure decision? Getting snowed in? I am unaware of any documented cases of students and teachers becoming stranded at school and freezing or starving to death. The worse thing that can happen is they have to stay at school a little later.